Monday, October 31, 2022

Nifty forms bullish candle; 18,100 to be next crucial resistance


The Nifty50 as expected had a strong gap-up opening on October 31 and finally closed above the psychological 18,000 mark for the first time since September 13, driven by a rally in auto, banking & financial services, technology, and pharma stocks. The robust beginning of the week was especially after consolidation last week, ahead of a special Reserve Bank of India (RBI) meeting and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision due later this week.

The index has formed a bullish candle on the daily charts as the closing was higher than the opening levels. Given the optimism, the 50-share NSE benchmark can march towards 18,100 if it strongly holds the 17,900-18,000 area in coming sessions, followed by which the next target would be 18,350, the high of a current calendar year, with crucial support at 17,500-17,800 zone, experts said.

The broader markets had a mixed trend as the breadth was not completely in favor of bulls. About 1,084 shares advanced against 916 declining shares on the NSE. The Nifty Midcap 100 index was up 1.1 percent and Smallcap 100 index ended flat with a positive bias.

The Nifty50 opened gap-up by more than 100 points at 17,910 and hit an intraday high of 18,023. The index closed with 225-point gains at 18,012."The Nifty has formed a bullish candle and higher bottom formation, which is indicating the continuation of an uptrend in the near future," Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research (Retail) at Kotak Securities said.

Below 17,900, traders may prefer to exit long positions, the market expert advised. On further decline it could retest the 17,800 mark, he said. India VIX was down by 0.75 percent to 15.80 levels, which also made the bulls comfortable. In the immediate term, the Nifty50 may trade in the range of 17,700 to 18,200 levels as per the Options data.

On the Option front, the maximum Call open interest was seen at 18,500 strikes followed by 18,000 strikes while the maximum Put open interest was seen at 17,000 strikes, followed by 17,500 strikes.

Friday, October 28, 2022

Wall Street surges to sharply higher close ahead of Fed week

A robust, broad-based rally sent Wall Street to a sharply higher close on Friday as encouraging economic data and a sunnier earnings outlook fueled investor risk appetite ahead of next week's much-anticipated two-day policy meeting of the Federal Reserve.

All major U.S. indexes ended the session up about 2.5% or more, with the S&P and the Nasdaq notching their second straight weekly gains. The blue-chip Dow posted its fourth consecutive Friday-to-Friday advance and its biggest weekly percentage gain since May.

"This has been one of the best months (so far) in the history of the Dow, suggesting the bear market likely ended," said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group in Omaha. "Big monthly moves historically happen at the end of bear markets."

"This is the second Friday in a row we've seen aggressive buying suggesting investors are growing more comfortable holding over the weekend," Detrick added.A 7.6% rebound in Apple Inc helped soften the blow of the 6.8% plunge for Amazon.com shares, in the wake of the two market leaders' results.

Solid earnings beats from Chevron, Exxon Mobil and other companies outside the tech and tech-adjacent megacap group have brightened aggregate earnings estimates for the quarter.

Analysts now see third-quarter S&P 500 earnings growth of 4.1%, up from 2.5% on Thursday, according to Refinitiv data.

"We've seen some high-profile misses from significant large-cap names," Detrick said. "But under the surface many of the smaller and midsize companies have been quite impressive with their earnings results."

Financial markets have now priced in an 84.5% likelihood of a fifth consecutive 75 basis point interest rate hike at the conclusion of the Fed's Nov. 1-2 policy meeting, and a 51.4% chance the central bank will decelerate to 50 basis points in December, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

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